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2022年4月
Facing the most rapid price increases since the early 1980s, many U.S. households are facing difficult choices, including whether to change purchasing habits or dig into savings. 例如, between January 3 and April 4, 2022, fuel prices nationally increased by almost one-third. If this lasts the whole year, we might see sustained changes in household spending.
总而言之, families built up wealth buffers during the pandemic, 这表明美国中产阶级已经为应对更高的房价做好了相对充分的准备, 虽然 流动资金余额下降 notably from their peak last year. 此外,研究所 研究 显示收入分配低端人群的收入增长最快，而且远远超过物价涨幅.
At the same time, many are being hurt by price increases. 美国老年人, 例如, 自大流行开始以来，收入增长较慢，离开劳动力队伍的人数多于其他年龄组1 与此同时, families differ in their consumption patterns, so the higher dispersion in inflation rates across products is landing unequally. 另外, 价格上涨之际，家庭正在努力应对许多大流行支持计划的结束，这些计划在过去两年中帮助他们管理现金流, such as the advanced Child Tax Credit and extended Unemployment Insurance support.
In this Take, we look back at 研究所 分析 that measured differences in households’ response to 25 percent 下降 2015年的汽油价格，以及最近关于家庭财务健康状况的研究，以深入了解高通胀将如何影响今年的经济结果.
While the impact of fuel price increases may not be symmetric with a drop in prices, the following lessons from the 2015 episode remain relevant:
- 影响s differ significantly across the country. 例如, in 2015, 印第安纳波利斯的家庭, 图森, and Dallas-Fort Worth saw a drop in fuel spending equivalent to 1.3 percent of income compared to less than a 0.5 percent drop in DC, Las Vegas, San Francisco, New York City, and Los Angeles. 西部和东北部的家庭受到的影响较小，原因有两个:第一, 与美国其他地区相比，2015年加州的汽油价格下跌幅度要小得多. 其次，一些城市的居民在汽油上的支出占收入的比例高于其他城市. A similar dynamic is occurring today. 根据 来自美国的数据.S. Energy Information Administration, nationally fuel prices were 28 percent higher on April 4 than Jan 3, 但这种增长幅度从新英格兰的20%到墨西哥湾沿岸地区的30%不等.
- 对于低收入家庭来说，燃料支出在家庭预算中所占的比例更大. Although higher income families spend more on fuel in absolute terms, 作为收入的一小部分, 2015年，较低的燃油价格为低收入家庭节省了更多的收入(1).4 percent for the bottom 20 percent of households vs 0.4 percent for the top 20 percent). 因此, 最近的物价上涨对低收入家庭来说可能比高收入家庭更困难.
- 支出 on other goods and services shifted somewhat. 汽油价格下降25%可能为中等收入家庭节省632美元. 家庭将潜在储蓄的58%用于非天然气商品和服务，24%用于天然气. Households spent over $200 on non-gas goods and services, 主要是餐馆, 零售, 和杂货. 美国家庭在加油站花费了155美元(24%)的潜在储蓄. Gains in these categories were offset by 下降s in Transit spending. 如果过去是序幕, 不过也有一线希望，燃油价格上涨可能会促使司机重新选择公共交通, 就在全国各地的交通系统正在努力从新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行中恢复过来之际.
Two other components of consumer spending are also on-the-move: housing and food.
- 租房者, 哪些人的收入往往低于自有住房者，他们每月的工资中有更多花在住房成本上, will be facing the most severe increases in housing costs in the short to medium term. Rents tend to lag other prices as leases are slow to adjust, 因此，房地产市场和其他地方的快速价格上涨尚未完全传导到租金上. 而现有房主则受益于他们的房屋在大流行期间的升值，而那些在过去两年中有能力买房的人则受益于历史上较低的抵押贷款利率, renters are facing an affordability crisis. If they choose to buy a home, they face high prices and rising mortgage rates, while continuing to lease exposes them to rapidly increasing rents. 此外，研究所 研究 found that renters had less savings than homeowners before March 2020, and their relative position did not improve significantly during the pandemic.
- Food is also a larger component of lower-income Americans’ spending. The Consumer Price Index for food increased by 13 percent from pre-pandemic levels. 老年人和退休人员的食品支出比例也更高, who are experiencing lower income growth than the median worker.
与此同时，通货膨胀侵蚀了经济脆弱家庭的主要储蓄缓冲.
- Households stockpiled savings worth $2.5 trillion during the pandemic2, with the largest percent rises in liquid balance in the lowest income quartile. Black and Hispanic households, and Americans with lower incomes generally, experienced higher percent increases in 液体平衡 during the pandemic, though the same was not generally true in absolute dollar terms.
- 然而, 这些形式的储蓄, 而稳定的, 没有像房价和股票那样随着价格上涨而上涨——高收入白人家庭持有的资产类别不成比例.
为决策者, 几十年来相对较低的通胀突然结束，突显出劳动力市场吃紧与物价稳定之间的权衡. 当低通胀时, 还有通货紧缩的风险, was a primary macroeconomic concern, the Fed’s goals of full employment and price stability were mainly complementary. This no longer appears to be the case. 劳动力市场吃紧的趋势支持基础广泛的经济增长，现在需要与高企且波动的通胀成本进行权衡, which affects households unevenly. 家庭消费价格的差异和财务状况的差异凸显了颗粒的重要性, data-driven perspectives to guide policy.
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